2025 Analysis
| Assessment: Contested | Confidence Interval: Moderate |
| Direction: Trend U.S. | Confidence Interval: Moderate |
________
The United States is Making Early Wins in the Path to Future Networks
Non-terrestrial networks (NTNs)[1] will be key to fostering next-generation networks and a critical piece is low-earth orbit (LEO) satellites. To date, the United States holds a commanding lead in the deployment of LEO satellite constellations, with U.S. company, Starlink, having deployed approximately 6,764 LEO satellites.[2] Other U.S. and allied companies such as London-based OneWeb and Amazon’s Project Kuiper, have plans to launch more in the next year.[3] U.S. companies like Starlink[4] and AST SpaceMobile are also taking a global lead in D2D-enabled (direct to device) satellites, which reduce implementation costs via decreased need for the base stations that traditionally serve as interlocutors between LEO satellites and terrestrial networks.[5] As of 2024, Starlink has about 300+ LEO satellites in operation and users can now access the beta version and experience D2D enabled networks themselves.[6] Despite Beijing’s strategic prioritization of space technologies, via quantum communications,[7] and earlier this year, a successful space mission to the other side of the moon, China is lagging behind in the deployment of LEO mega-constellations.[8] This past August, Beijing launched a series of 18 LEO satellites first in August,[9] and again, in October[10] in an effort to form its own Starlink rival network. These are the first steps China took in an ambitious plan to launch as many as 40,000 LEO satellites in the next decade.[11]
Source: Smallsats by the Numbers 2024, Bryce Tech at 18 (2024).
Wildcards
- Will Increasing Space Debris Trigger a Catastrophic Kessler Effect? As the LEO networks market continues to grow and space launches become more widespread, there is a growing issue with debris floating in low earth orbit. Approximately 85% of this debris resides within low-earth orbit and is traveling at high velocities.[12] This debris can cause significant damage to existing satellites, and raises the possibility that the density of debris will render it impossible to safely deploy and operate satellites. This prospect, known as the Kessler effect, can lead to a high number of collisions where the possibility of each collision exponentially increases after each collision.[13]
- Can Low Earth Orbit Support the Surge in Satellite Deployments? The issue of space debris rose again recently in August with the PRC launch of its Long March rocket, which created upwards of 700 debris fragments.[14] As the global race to deploy large-scale satellite constellations intensifies and other companies and nations are rapidly developing their own satellite networks — they are pushing the boundaries of low Earth orbit (LEO) capacity. SpaceX has plans to launch a mega-constellation of LEO communications satellites with approximately 42,000 satellites.[15] However, experts say that low earth orbit can only hold 72,000 satellites under the current circumstances before reaching a critical threshold that could trigger the Kessler effect to take place.[16]
What to Watch
- China Accelerates Its Push for Global 6G Leadership Through Patents and Standards. Looking at the broader advanced networks sector, the 6G landscape is continuing to take shape,[17] with many industry experts anticipating the emergence of 6G networks by 2028[18] and fuller scaling and deployment of 6G networks within the 2030s; however, similar to China’s deployment of 5G — China is attempting to stake its claim as the leader of the 6G market. Currently, China has 6,001 6G patents, compared to the United States’s 3,909.[19] While this technology is still in its early days, the global effort to standardize technological requirements is already underway.[20] Throughout this process, countries will seek to gain early-mover advantages from setting international standards closely aligned with their industry leaders’ current capabilities. On both the technological and standard-setting fronts, the United States will need to ramp up attention for 6G soon, otherwise, it risks losing out to China like it did with 5G.
[1] Low-earth orbit (LEO) satellites are part of a broader non-terrestrial satellite (NTN) ecosystem that includes medium-earth orbit (MEO) and geostationary orbit (GEO) satellites, MEOs and GEOs both complement LEOs with capabilities like balanced coverage, latency for underserved areas, and high-capacity broadcasting for fixed locations. High-altitude platforms (HAPS), such as solar-powered drones and stratospheric balloons, provide localized connectivity and disaster recovery in remote areas. NTNs are also advancing into lunar and interplanetary communications through optical and quantum technologies, promising to revolutionize global connectivity, bridge digital divides, and enable next-generation services.
[2] Tereza Pultarova & Elizabeth Howell, Starlink Satellites: Facts, Tracking and Impact on Astronomy, Space News (2024).
[3] Everything you need to know about Project Kuiper, Amazon’s satellite broadband network, Amazon (Last Accessed 2024)
[4] Rachel Jewett, SpaceX Now Has More Than 100 Direct-to-Cell Satellites in Orbit, Via Satellite (2024).
[5] Mike Robuck, A Lot of People Want to be in AST SpaceMobile’s Orbit, Mobile World Live (2024).
[6] T-Mobile Starlink Starts Beta Program for its Direct-to-Cell Satellite Service, GSMArena(2024).
[7] Andrew Jones, China Plans to Take ‘Hack-Proof’ Quantum Satellite Technology to New Heights, Space (2023).
[8] Liz Lee, et al, China Lands on Moon’s Far Side in Historic Sample-Retrieval Mission, Reuters (2024).
[9] Arjun Kharpal, China Launches Its Rival to Elon Musk’s Starlink Internet Satellites, CNBC (2024).
[10] Andrew Jones, China Launches Second Batch of 18 Satellites for Thousand Sails Megaconstellation, Space News (2024).
[11] Steven Feldstein, Why Catching Up to Starlink Is a Priority for Beijing, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (2024).
[12] Aneli Bongers & José L. Torres, Low-Earth Orbit Faces a Spiraling Debris Threat, Scientific American (2024).
[13] Kaiser Y Kuo, Space Debris: How Can the U.S. and China Avoid the Tragedy of the Commons, Sinica (2024).
[14] Andrew Jones, Chinese Rocket Stage Breaks Up into Cloud of More Than 700 Pieces of Space Debris, Space News (2024).
[15] Tereza Pultarova & Elizabeth Howell, Starlink Satellites: Facts, Tracking and Impact on Astronomy, Space News (2024).
[16] Anelí Bongers & José L. Torres, Orbital Debris and the Market for Satellites, Science Direct (2023).
[17] Isaac Myauo, Non-Terrestrial Networks: What They Are and How They Drive Innovation Towards 6G, IQT (2024).
[18] Yu Han-Chang, 6G: Key Hardware Technologies and Future Development Roadmap, IDTechEx (2024).
[19] India Makes Strides in 6G, Reaches Top Six for Global Patent Filing, Communications Today (2024).
[20] Daniel Chen Larsson, et al., 6G Standardization – An Overview of Timeline and High-Level Technology Principles, Ericsson (2024).