Seizing the Tech Future: A Roadmap for the Trump Administration
The incoming Trump Administration takes office at a truly critical juncture in history, presented with a rare and historic opportunity to fundamentally alter the trajectory of this decade and, ultimately, the 21st century. The decisions made in the coming years will determine the future of geopolitics, technology, and the free world for decades to come.
When we first started our work at the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence in 2018 and now with the Special Competitive Studies Project, we foresaw that the arrival of AI would be a transformative force. This initial insight has been borne out. AI is not merely a new tool; it is a catalyst for change across all sectors of society, from economics to defense, fundamentally altering the global landscape.
Equally important was our early recognition of the emergence of technology as the key battleground in an intensifying geostrategic competition. While America’s strengths remain commanding, the international geopolitical environment is becoming increasingly more strained, complex, and competitive. Two principal phenomena are driving these dangerous changes. The first is the growing assertiveness of and collaboration among China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. The second is the rapid advancement of new technologies, principally (but not exclusively) AI and other emerging technologies, that are acting as a catalyst for disruption, and a key determinant of national power. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is the quintessential manifestation of both phenomena—a nation with the intent and capability to disrupt American strategic leadership and determined to dominate technological frontiers.
Recognizing the immense responsibility and opportunity before the incoming Administration, we offer these memos as an initial contribution to its critical work. These are not just analyses, but a collection of actionable ideas aimed at one overarching goal: altering the current trajectory of our nation and setting America firmly on the path to win the intensifying competition in artificial intelligence. We believe that by embracing bold and decisive strategies, particularly in the realm of AI, the new Administration can ensure that the 21st century, once again, becomes an American century defined by leadership, innovation, and enduring democratic values. We firmly believe that by winning the AI competition, America can secure its position as a global leader and safeguard the future for generations to come.
The actionable ideas we propose seek to answer a series of key strategic questions that we believe the new Administration will face on technology, economic and geopolitical competition, and on national security in the age of AI.
Preparing for Transformative Technologies
- Are we adequately organized and prepared for the arrival of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) and its potential societal and geopolitical impacts? What specific structures and policies need to be in place?
- How do we leverage the energy demands of AI to both accelerate its development while revamping the energy sector to power future industries?
- How do we anticipate and manage the immense power and potential disruptions of quantum computing? What are the implications for cybersecurity, cryptography, and more broadly, the state of the nation’s network infrastructure?
- How can we maximize the benefits of biotechnology while mitigating potential risks, including biosecurity threats?
- How do we create a robust and resilient advanced manufacturing ecosystem? What role will robotics and automation play, and how do we ensure a smooth transition for the workforce?
- How do we ensure that we are never again strategically surprised when it comes to technology and innovation?
Economic and Geopolitical Competition
- How do we build a sustainable international trade order that is free from mercantilist practices, particularly those employed by China? What strategies can we employ to ensure that we and our allies build and sustain secure and resilient supply chains?
- How do we leverage technological cooperation with allies and partners to counter the influence of strategic competitors? What mechanisms can be established to facilitate technology sharing and joint development?
- How can we promote globally the embrace of technological solutions that unleash the human spirit and freedoms, and not servitude?
National Security in the Age of AI
- What should be the overarching goals of our foreign policy, national defense, and intelligence community in this new era dominated by AI and other emerging technologies? How do we adapt our strategies and capabilities to address new threats and opportunities?
- How do we integrate AI into our foreign policy actions, and defense and intelligence operations? And how do we shape the future of our departments and agencies to be ready for confronting China?
These pressing questions require the immediate and strategic focus of the incoming Administration and Congress. With this upcoming memo series, our goal is to present bold ideas and actionable recommendations to not only enhance America’s global competitiveness but also to position our nation as a leader in shaping the transformative age of AI. This is a pivotal moment to invest in the future and ensure our country thrives in this new era of innovation and technological advancement.