The Fundamental Designs of Beijing
The Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) overarching goal is to transform the People’s Republic of China (PRC) into the leading global power in every domain. This entails eclipsing U.S. influence, weakening U.S. alliances, and demonstrating autocracy’s supposed superiority over democracy. Domestically, the Party seeks to maintain its absolute power and control over all spheres of Chinese society: political, economic, military, technological, and cultural. Internationally, the CCP seeks to shape a future where Beijing dictates global dynamics — through its sheer power, via its influence in existing, but weakened or co-opted international institutions, or through new forums that it seeks to establish. Central to their pursuit of these designs are the security apparatus, including the modernizing People’s Liberation Army (PLA), and the size of China’s market and economy. China has the most ambitious military modernization program in the world. The vast scale of China’s economy enables the party to fund this program, invest in large-scale technology development initiatives, and leverage the promise of access to its market to silence critics and compel nations and corporations to align with its preferences.
Political Aspects. The CCP aims to prove that its model of “socialism with Chinese characteristics” is superior to democratic government. It contends that its system — which steers technology and economic resources to advance the Party’s goals — provides the path to global supremacy for China and a model for developing nations to achieve prosperity without democracy. However, despite the confidence of its rhetoric, the Party is deeply insecure about its own survival: it spends more on enforcing domestic security and stability than it does on military modernization.[1] Its desire for social control manifests itself in measures such as the “Great Firewall,” the world’s most draconian internet control system, designed to tightly monitor and censor political content domestically. The party pairs this with sophisticated tech platforms that enable it to shape information domains globally.
Economic Aspects. China’s economic leverage — as the world’s second largest economy — serves as a key tool for advancing the CCP’s global ambitions and achieving geopolitical objectives. Beijing views its decades-long achievement of high economic growth as one of the fundamental underpinnings of the Party’s legitimacy and as proof that its autocratic system is better than democracy at delivering development. Since the COVID-19 pandemic, however, Chinese economic growth has slowed[2] at the same time as the United States is experiencing strong growth, presenting the Party with one of the most serious challenges to its legitimacy in decades. China’s ability to catch up with and surpass the United States in total economic size, once widely assumed inevitable, has been called into question amid a shrinking population, declining growth drivers (like investment in real estate and infrastructure), and an apparent unwillingness among decision-makers to make the necessary shift toward a more consumer-oriented economy. Despite this, and in pursuit of self-reliance and an alternative growth engine, Beijing is doubling down on support for high-tech manufacturing, which is poised to generate significant industrial overcapacity, distorting global markets in the process.[3] Left unchecked, China’s economic policy direction could undermine nascent attempts in the United States and other advanced economies to rebuild critical defense and commercial production capabilities in strategic sectors, such as semiconductors, clean energy, and electric vehicles.
Military Aspects. The Party’s ambition is also reflected in its military modernization program, aimed at turning the PLA into what Xi Jinping calls a “world-class” military,[4] capable of challenging U.S. dominance in the Indo-Pacific and beyond. Spending on the PLA has grown by at least 6.6% per year for the last three decades.[5] The PLA is a “party army” subordinate to the CCP, not the Chinese state. Its primary focus is on deterring or defeating potential adversaries in its region — in particular, the United States — such as in conflicts in Taiwan and the South China Sea. But its global activities are growing to support the Party’s ambition of establishing China as global leader in every domain. It seeks to protect China’s overseas interests, project power beyond the “third island chain” (encompassing the Aleutian Islands, Hawaii, and islands north of New Zealand), and, over time, establish a global network of military installations.
Innovation Aspects. China has made tremendous strides in science and technology (S&T) in recent decades. Beijing has openly declared its aspiration to become a leading global S&T power, boost its self-reliance, set the pace for future scientific advancements, and dictate global norms. These efforts have yielded results: the PRC is now a major player in many fields, including AI, advanced manufacturing, quantum computing, and biotechnology. In some fields, such as renewable energy, PRC advantages in scale have facilitated noteworthy process innovation, allowing Chinese firms to take the lead.[6] While the Party is significantly increasing investments in building China’s innovation power, it is worth noting that Beijing is also tightening its centralized control over the research environment. These simultaneous but opposing dynamics — resource injection on the one hand and great control on the other — could potentially hamper China’s achievement of groundbreaking innovations. However, the Party is unlikely to hold back and will seek to correct the imbalance with resource injections and appropriations of foreign intellectual property.
The Fundamental Designs of Moscow
The Kremlin’s driving purpose is to perpetuate Vladimir Putin’s hold on power and exert influence on the international stage reminiscent of the power Moscow enjoyed during the Soviet era. Domestically, this centers on dominating the political, economic, and media spaces, avoiding the emergence at all cost of any credible opposition or independent power centers, and fostering a renewed — though highly inflated — sense of Russian greatness and global relevance. Externally, Moscow is opportunistic and does not have a well-defined geographic boundary of influence that it seeks to establish to satisfy its ambitions or to feel secure. This ambiguity makes Russia particularly dangerous. At minimum, it wants to reclaim its influence in the post-Soviet space, break the current world order so as to achieve some parity with the United States, and act with impunity in a multipolar world.
Political Aspects. The Kremlin’s foremost political objective is the preservation and perpetuation of the existing power structure and suppression of any challenge to its authority. This encompasses controlling information flows, selectively applying laws and manipulating judicial proceedings, restricting political opposition, and ensuring the socio-economic dominance of the ruling elite. The Kremlin promotes a narrative of Russian exceptionalism, drawing on its long-gone historical grandeur, outdated social values, and co-opted Russian Orthodox Church to legitimize its rule and counter Western narratives.
Economic Aspects. The Russian economic policies are driven by a focus on state control over strategic sectors, particularly the vast natural resource industries. In 2023, oil and gas sales accounted for more than 34% of its total federal budget revenue.[7] This control provides the Kremlin with the financial resources to ensure domestic stability and to support its geopolitical ambitions. The Kremlin also fosters a close partnership with powerful oligarchs to solidify economic support for the regime in exchange for lucrative business opportunities.
Military Aspects. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led to a rapid reshaping of its military forces. Having lost 90% of its prewar army in the first two years of the war, the Kremlin is nonetheless expanding and reconstituting its conventional forces — aided by significant increases in defense spending and mobilization of its industrial bases. Russia’s strategic deterrent remains largely unaffected by the war. Moscow maintains a sizable nuclear weapons arsenal[8] to deter a spectrum of actions from NATO (and China) and to project continued superpower parity with the United States. Additionally, Moscow continues to invest in and effectively use hybrid warfare capabilities, including cyberwarfare and disinformation, allowing it to asymmetrically exploit vulnerabilities and exert influence without needing to resort to direct military confrontation.
Innovation Aspects. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Kremlin has struggled to compete at the leading edge of science and technology, although it continues to maintain a strong domestic talent base in basic sciences and mathematics.[9] Moscow, once the more advanced technological power, historically cemented its military-technical cooperation with Beijing by supplying the PRC with some of its sophisticated weapons systems.[10] Over the past decade, however, the tables have turned, and Moscow now finds itself reliant on Beijing to access more modern technology systems. High on the list of Moscow’s priorities is to lessen Russia’s reliance on Western technology while mitigating the effects of sanctions. Moscow also exerts extensive control over the digital realm within its borders, using censorship and surveillance capabilities to manage information flows and clamp down on dissent.
The Fundamental Designs of Tehran
The Islamic Republic of Iran’s core objectives are to preserve its form of government at home and establish Iran as the preeminent power in the Near East, including by ejecting U.S. forces from the region, achieving a balance of power with Israel, and usurping the leadership role of the Islamic world. Iran’s rulers — a small cadre of technocrats, military leaders, and business elites overseen by a clerical establishment — leverage brutality at home, a growing conventional military arsenal, state-sponsored terrorism, a broad network of rejectionist Islamic groups, and sophisticated offensive cyber and disinformation capabilities to pursue their objectives.
Political Aspects. The Iranian regime’s principal objectives are to become the region’s dominant power and to preserve and propagate its unique model of government. Iran’s clerical elite and its Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) hold all levers of power under the Supreme Leader. Together, they set the direction and tone of domestic and foreign policy. Tehran seeks to remake the balance of power in the Near East by pressuring the United States and its allies to withdraw from the region, and setting the conditions to balance or overtake Israel as the most powerful country in the region.
Economic Aspects. Iran strives for economic self-reliance to mitigate the impact of sanctions and lessen its reliance on oil exports. It tries to pursue policies aimed at diversifying its economy, fostering domestic industries, and circumventing Western financial restrictions. Since its founding, Iranian leaders have proclaimed their goal of achieving equity and social justice in their political rhetoric. While on the surface the government prioritizes social programs and subsidies for essential goods and services as a means to garner domestic support, economic power is still concentrated in the hands of a small elite, including the security forces such as the IRGC. Through a network of holding companies, front organizations, and “charitable foundations,” the IRGC exerts significant influence over the country’s construction, telecommunications, and oil and gas sectors. It also uses them to subvert sanctions and covertly export weapons and military technologies to its regional proxies and to Russia.[11]
Military Aspects. Iran’s conventional military doctrine emphasizes a strong retaliatory posture to deter attacks from adversaries, namely, Israel and the United States. Besides its large conventional military force, Tehran’s reluctance to completely and verifiably disavow its nuclear program provides it leverage to counter Western pressure. Meanwhile, Tehran emphasizes hard power — including its network of armed proxies and allies across the region and its growing arsenal of medium- and long-range rockets, missiles, and armed drones — to project power and protect its interests in the Near East and beyond. Iran also uses its own defense-related items or technical data to build relations, gain diplomatic allies, and indirectly attack the United States interests and personnel.
Innovation Aspects. Tehran prioritizes indigenous scientific and technological development — with a focus on nuclear technology, aerospace, and cyber capabilities[12] — to bolster its self-sufficiency. The Iranian government seeks to maintain strict control over information flows domestically, censoring the Internet and promoting a narrative favorable to the regime. Its development of cyberwarfare capabilities aims to protect against cyberattacks and provide tools to disrupt foreign critical infrastructure.
The Fundamental Designs of Pyongyang
The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) is driven by the overarching goal of regime preservation under the absolute control of the Kim dynasty. This encompasses maintaining a rigidly controlled society, pursuing nuclear weapons for deterrence and extortion, and promoting an ideology of extreme nationalism and self-reliance. Internationally, the DPRK seeks to undermine U.S. influence in the region, secure reunification with South Korea on its own terms, and obtain recognition as a nuclear power.
Political Aspects. The principal design of the Kim regime is to retain and solidify its absolute power within the DPRK. The regime’s system is animated by the “Juche” ideology, which enshrines the hereditary rule of the Kim family in the North Korean identity.[13] The DPRK’s international strategy is driven by a deep-seated perception of existential threats from the United States and South Korea. This is then used as an excuse by the Kim dynasty to pursue ever greater military capabilities to guarantee its survival and display its power. The question of succession could pose a threat to the regime, as any transfer of power in a system built on force and intimidation risks triggering a period of instability.
Economic Aspects. The regime seeks to maintain a balance among three interlocking imperatives: pursuing autarky, securing resources for its weapons programs, and sustaining a basic level of material existence for its subjects sufficient to avert a popular challenge to its legitimacy. The regime has a pragmatic recognition of its need for economic improvement to conserve its political stability and avoid undermining the centralized structure of its economy. Its international economic engagements, though limited, are pursued with the dual goals of acquiring essential goods and technologies and circumventing influences that could destabilize the regime. The country’s shortage of hard currency compels the Kim regime to rely on a range of illegal activities to fund its weapons programs, including cyberattacks, drug trafficking, and arms sales to Russia for its war in Ukraine.[14]
Military Aspects. The regime aims to assert its sovereignty and expand its influence on the Korean peninsula through provocative military maneuvers and robust nuclear and conventional deterrents. Its military doctrine is anchored in the acquisition of nuclear weapons, the development of ballistic missile delivery systems, and the massing of conventional warfighting capabilities on its southern border. This doctrine is intended to ward off alleged foreign encroachment and to coerce diplomatic and economic concessions. The DPRK, having worked on two legs of the nuclear triad[15] — intercontinental ballistic missiles and submarine-launched ballistic missiles — seeks to achieve a state of strategic equilibrium through developing the credible threat of catastrophic retaliation.[16] The DPRK’s weapons programs also reinforce its political goals to assure its subjects of the nation’s strength and ability to thwart an attack by the United States.
Innovation Aspects. Despite an overwhelming sanctions regime, the DPRK regime has exhibited a remarkable capacity for innovation in the military sphere, with clandestine support from foreign partners. In its formative years, the DPRK was the beneficiary of extensive material and technical aid from the Soviet Union and the illicit proliferation network helmed by A. Q. Khan.[17] More recently, and in the face of increased scrutiny, the regime has charted an increasingly indigenous method of innovation. It has also developed modern military technologies, such as improved re-entry vehicles, solid-fuel propellants, and a greater satellite capacity.[18]
[1] China Spends More on Controlling its 1.4bn People than on Defense, Nikkei (2022).
[2] Stella Yifan Xie, China’s Growth Slows to Three-Decade Low Excluding Pandemic, Wall Street Journal (2024).
[3] Brad W. Setser, et al., China’s Record Manufacturing Surplus, Council on Foreign Relations (2024).
[4] Transcript: President Xi Jinping’s Report to China’s 2022 Party Congress, Nikkei (2022).
[5] China Defense Spending to Climb 7.2% as Xi Pursues Buildup, Bloomberg (2024).
[6] Dan Wang, China’s Hidden Tech Revolution: How Beijing Threatens U.S. Dominance, Foreign Affairs (2023).
[7] Russia’s Oil and Gas Budget Revenue Down 24% in 2023, Reuters (2024).
[8] Nuclear Notebook: Russian Nuclear Forces, 2024, Federation of American Scientists (2024).
[9] Dominik Jankowski, Russia and the Technological Race in the Era of Great Power Competition, Center for Strategic and International Studies (2021); Nayanee Gupta, et al, Innovation Policies of Russia, Institute for Defense Analyses (2013).
[10] Dmitry Gorenburg, et al., Russian-Chinese Military Cooperation, CNA (2023).
[11] Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, Council on Foreign Relations (2024).
[12] Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community. Office of the Director of National Intelligence (2024); Iran Military Power. Ensuring Regime Survival and Securing Regional Dominance. Defense Intelligence Agency (2019).
[13] Foster Klug, Juche Rules North Korean Propaganda, But What Does It Mean?, Associated Press (2019).
[14] Tom Wilson, North Korean Hackers, Criminals Share Money Laundering Networks in Southeast Asia – UN, Reuters (2024).
[15] I.e., nuclear launch capabilities by air, land, and sea.
[16] As of last year, the state was estimated to have 30 warheads, and enough fissile material to produce 50 to 70 more. Control and Proliferation Profile: North Korea, Arms Control Association (2023).
[17] Balázs Szalontai & Sergey Radchenko, North Korea’s Efforts to Acquire Nuclear Technology and Nuclear Weapons: Evidence from Russian and Hungarian Archives, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars (2006); Mike Chinoy, How Pakistan’s A.Q. Khan Helped North Korea Get the Bomb, Foreign Policy (2021).
[18] Kim Tong-Hyung, North Korea Says It Tested a New Hypersonic Intermediate-Range Missile That’s Easier to Hide, Associated Press (2024); Josh Smith, North Korea’s First Spy Satellite is ‘Alive’, Can Manoeuvre, Expert Says, Reuters (2024); Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community. Office of the Director of National Intelligence (2024); North Korea Military Power: A Growing Regional and Global Threat, Defense Intelligence Agency (2021).