While America’s strengths remain commanding, the international geopolitical environment is becoming increasingly more strained, complex, and competitive. Two principal phenomena are driving these dangerous changes. The first is the growing assertiveness of and (tacit) coordination among China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. The second is the rapid advancement of new technologies, principally (but not exclusively) AI, that is acting as a catalyst for disruption and realignment.
The “Axis of Disruptors” — China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea — united in their disdain for the American-led, rules-based order, appear to sense an opportunity to stress this order through simultaneous, disruptive actions and push it to a breaking point.[1] The alignment of these revisionist powers is less of an ideological bloc and more a marriage of convenience born out of their intent to end the current international order. Their methods include imposing absolute control at home, and engaging in cyber interference, economic coercion, military aggression, and other nefarious actions abroad. This diffuse but sustained challenge chips away at the foundations of the international order, not through grand victories, but constant pressure, and with incremental gains near the threshold that would provoke America’s full fledged reaction.
While their ultimate ends may not be fully aligned, there is considerable commonality in the objectives that they pursue. Politically, all four nations seek to weaken democratic alliances in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia; support existing and emerging anti-United States regimes worldwide; advance false narratives to discredit the United States, its allies, and democracy at large; and promote an alternative, authoritarian form of government and world order rife with lofty slogans, but short on substantive principles. Economically, they seek to weaponize their endowments of natural resources, particularly fossil fuels and critical minerals, while moving to control natural resources in developing economies around the world. They leverage direct investments and corruption to co-opt local elites, take over infrastructure assets, and foment political instability to create lasting dependencies. They seek greater sway in existing international economic institutions by leveraging decision-making processes of such institutions to get their way or bring them to a standstill, all while promoting alternative institutions which they claim would be more equitable and fair. They may decry centuries-old acts of economic exploitation against them — many of which are vastly distorted and exaggerated — but make no mistake: they simultaneously engage in ‘brute force’ economics, devastating cyber attacks, and massive heists of intellectual property.
Militarily, they are each other’s security partners of choice. They collaborate and assist one another in developing strategic weapons, share insights on how to defeat American and allied defenses and weapons platforms, and often cooperate in circumventing international sanctions. All four have perfected and leverage extensive military and intelligence operations that directly challenge American and allied interests without provoking an all-out war. Over time, these nefarious actions continuously raise the level of what becomes tolerable, even if not acceptable, and in the process erode American political will and credibility and undermine international peace and security. While their level of distrust toward one another remains strong and inhibits them from entering into formal alliances, their military partnerships have been gaining depth. China, Iran, and North Korea have all provided decisive military aid to Russia to sustain its war of aggression against Ukraine. Bilaterally and even tri-laterally,[2] they have engaged in joint military exercises with other like-minded nations in observer status. Military technology transfers have been an ongoing phenomenon for decades; the latest transfers include drones and drone components, missiles, and semiconductors.[3] In intergovernmental organizations, they provide diplomatic cover to one another for sanctionable military activities and, when compelled to act against each other, use diplomatic capital to water down condemnations and sanctions. They also maintain robust relationships with each other’s proxies and client states, providing them with a degree of international legitimacy, foreign aid, and material assistance.
With respect to innovation, all four prioritize absolute control over their domestic information domains and aspire to develop technological self-sufficiency. They also engage in cyber attacks to gain intelligence, economic insights, and technological know-how, as well as to lay the groundwork for future attacks. They engage in disinformation campaigns through digital platforms that aim to blur the line between fact and fiction, weaponize socio-economic fault lines to sow discord, and instigate crises during politically charged election periods. They have a zero-sum view of space exploration, preferring to hold the entire domain at risk than to cede it to American preeminence, and often use space programs as cover for developing long-range missiles. In short, innovation is viewed as another means to increase control, assert state power, and reshape the international order. Therefore, the preference is for indigenous innovation, first and foremost, and for foreign-developed, but domestically repurposed second. But they do not exclude leveraging foreign innovations for foreign policy objectives, even if simultaneously denying access to such innovation to their own populace. In an ideal world, all four prefer a fragmented innovation ecosystem that allows them unfettered access to all, but denies others access to theirs.
[1] 3 Key Takeaways from 2023 & 6 Items to Watch in 2024, Special Competitive Studies Project (2023).
[2] Russia, Iran and China to Hold Warship Drills in Gulf of Oman, Reuters (2024).
[3] Demetri Sevastopulo, et al., US says China is Supplying Missile and Drone Engines to Russia, Financial Times (2024).